Research articles
ScienceAsia 48 (2022):ID 367-372 |doi:
10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2022.042
Modeling of Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) landings in the lower
stretch of Brahmaputra River (Assam, India) under
time-series framework
Anil Kumar Yadava,*, Simanku Boraha, Kishore Kumar Dasb, Rohan Kumar Ramanc,d, Pronob Dasa, Basanta Kumar Dasd
ABSTRACT: For effective fisheries management of Brahmaputra River in Assam, India as well as for sustainable fishery
development in the river stretch, it is significant to know the change in pattern of fish landings in previous years.
Statistical modelling helps in describing the dynamics of fish landings and their short-term predictions. Thus, we
attempted modeling the quarterly data series (1987?2019) on Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) landings in the Indian part
of Brahmaputra River at Uzanbazar (Guwahati) using univariate forecasting techniques, viz., ARIMA (Auto-Regressive
Integrated Moving Average) and NNAR (Neural Network Auto Regression). A comparative performance of fitted models
was assessed based on the forecast accuracy measures. Based on comparison of forecast accuracy of models, the
ARIMA model outperformed the NNAR model. Based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information
Criterion (BIC) values, an ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)4 was found to be the appropriate model for describing Hilsa landings
of Brahmaputra River. Under the present conditions, the forecasts by fitted ARIMA model predicted stagnation in
abundance of prized Hilsa fish in the River at around 3000 kg/year for the upcoming years, which call for formulating
and implementing an effective fishery management plan for conservation of its stocks. This is the first attempt on
developing time-series models to forecast the Hilsa landings of Brahmaputra River in the region.
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a |
ICAR-Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute, Regional Centre, Guwahati 781006, Assam, India |
b |
Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, Assam, India |
c |
ICAR-Research Complex for Eastern Region, Patna 800014, Bihar, India |
d |
ICAR-Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute, Barrackpore, Kolkata 700120, West Bengal, India |
* Corresponding author, E-mail: yadav.anil.stats@gmail.com
Received 27 May 2021, Accepted 25 Nov 2021
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