ScienceAsia 17 (1991): 003-030 |doi: 10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.1991.17.003

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE VARIETY SELECTION IN THAILAND

SUWANNA PANTURAT^a, AND AMOS EDDY

ABSTRACT: Rice is one of the main sources of food for the people of the world. Southeast Asia is one of the main rice growing areas, and Thailand is the world's fifth largest producer of this crop. Thailand is tied with Burma as the largest per capita rice producer: about 1/3 ton per person per year. Approximately one quarter of the land area of the Kingdom of Thailand is used for rice production, and this commodity constituted 12.6% of the GDP in 1988. Rice made up 8.6% of the 1988 exports from the country. The above information supports the contention of this paperj that it is important both regionally and nationally for Thailand to adopt policies which would offset any negative trends imposed by possible climate changes on rice production. Possible climate change scenarios from three Global Climate Models (GCMs) are illustrated, and one of these was selected for more detailed study as regards its potential impact on rice production. Four groups of factors are considered by our state-of-the-art rice plant process computcr simulation model in estimating rice yield. These are: cultural practice, soils, climate, and genetics of the variety planted. The main focus of our study is on the genetic characteristics of crop yield; although, a portion of the cultural practice is of necessity considered along with the varietal aspects. We have shown how the GCM climate change scenario can be used by the rice model to produce information concerning the effect on yield estimates of variations in the vector of input genetic coefficients. This methodology has been used to modify the genetic coefficients of the rice varieties currently grown at 7 selected locations across Thailand in order to obtain a set of "improved" varieties which would produce higher yields at these locations under a "new" climate. Such improved yields require changes in sowing dates and fertilizer application. scheduling. Finally these "representative" yield estimates are aggregated to area production values and then transformed into economic terms to illustrate possible baht/year impacts

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a Department of Methematics, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok 10110, Thailand.
b Agricultural Engineering Department Oklahoma State University Oklahoma 73069, U.S.A.

Received 30 March 1991